Enhancing Energy Policy Planning in Thailand Through AI-Based Forecasting of Crude Oil Imports

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of Thailand’s crude oil import demand using a multiple regression approach and elasticity analysis. The results show that GDP and OPEC oil production have a positive relationship with crude oil imports, whereas domestic energy production and Dubai crude oil prices show a negative association. The estimated price elasticities of demand are highly inelastic in both the short run (-0.011) and long run (-0.015), indicating that crude oil remains an essential commodity with limited responsiveness to price fluctuations. In contrast, income elasticity is relatively high (0.212 short-run; 0.298 long-run), suggesting that economic growth substantially increases crude oil consumption. Compared with prior studies, Thailand’s price elasticity is particularly low, reinforcing the challenge of reducing imports through fiscal instruments such as fuel taxes, which may prove inflationary and ineffective. Furthermore, the negative coefficient of domestic energy production underscores its role as a substitute for crude oil. Enhancing local energy sources—such as hydro, lignite, natural gas, and condensate—can significantly reduce import dependency and strengthen energy security. The study also highlights the need for non-price-based policy measures, such as promoting energy conservation and shifting consumer behavior, especially during periods of high oil prices. These findings suggest that strategic demand-side management, combined with structural energy reforms, can improve resilience and sustainability in Thailand’s energy landscape. Lessons from this analysis may offer valuable guidance for other emerging economies facing similar import dependency and energy security challenges.