Crop Suitability Analysis Under Future Climate Change in Chachoengsao Province

Abstract

Currently, climate change poses one of the most significant global challenges we face. The rise in average global temperature and the occurrence of extreme weather events have the potential to result in natural disasters such as sea level rise, floods, droughts, and storms, which can negatively impact society. In developing countries, the agricultural sector plays a vital role in driving economic growth and sustaining social well-being. A decrease in crop productivity serves as strong evidence of climate change’s impact on vulnerable communities. Climate conditions are also increasingly influential in determining crop yields. This paper aims to project climate data for the year 2040 and evaluate land suitability for rice, rubber, and cassava cultivation in Thailand’s Chachoengsao province. The projected climate data illustrates a trend toward rising temperatures with minimal changes in rainfall patterns. To predict the level of suitability for rice, rubber, and cassava, the EcoCrop model is employed, requiring the projected climate data as input. The suitability maps for rice and cassava in 2040 exhibit some differences. The areas available for each suitability class for rice are as follows: marginally suitable (101 km2), moderately suitable (873 km2), highly suitable (1247 km2), and excellent (2799 km2). Chachoengsao province is also overall suitable for rubber and cassava cultivation. These findings can be utilized in long-term policy and planning efforts to optimize the productivity of agricultural land in the province.