Geopolitical risk, herd behavior, and cryptocurrency market

Abstract

By analyzing an association between return dispersions and market returns in cryptocurrency markets, geopolitical risk (GPR) stimulates herding at the market-wide level. We augment the aggregate herding detection models of Chang, Cheng, and Khorana (2000) and find that severe herd behavior is presented in nearly all cases. Thus, the GPR is an essential moderating factor to promote herd behavior in crypto assets. Considering the GPR sub-indices, the GPR Threat index has a stronger impact than the GPR Act index. Imitating trades are more prevalent during bearish markets, confirming asymmetric herd behavior. Specifically, herd behavior is the strongest during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. We infer that herding is intentional, as information symmetry, disclosure, and quality in cryptocurrency markets are relatively low. Overall findings support the “fear of missing out” (FOMO) phenomenon and the pump and dump schemes suggested by Baur and Dimpfl (2018).