การศึกษาแบบจำลองการขยายตัวของเมืองซีเอ-มาร์คอฟ CA-MARKOV กรณีศึกษา อำเภอเมือง จังหวัดสมุทรสาคร

Abstract

A study CA-MARKOV Urban Growth Model Study Area: Muang District, Samutsakorn Province has an objective to compare the numerical and spatial accuracy of CA-MARKOV model in prediction of urban growth and to predict the urban growth in 2020. This study has used the Landuse data that collect from Land Development Department (2002, 2007 and 2012) to predict the urban growth in 2016 by using CA-MARKOV model and verify the accuracy of model’s output by compare the landuse data of satellite image, Landsat 7 ETM (2016) and Error Matrix. The results of study found out that CA-MARKOV model has accuracy of overall landuse by 83.06 percent and the accuracy of urban area by 81.81 percent. And the simulated result of 2020 found out that urban area was increased by 33.60 km2 and the others area reduced by 34.60 km2