Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.swu.ac.th/jspui/handle/123456789/27616
ชื่อเรื่อง: Classical Forecasting of International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand
ผู้แต่ง: Intarapak S.
Supapakorn T.
Vuthipongse W.
Keywords: Box–Jenkins
Decomposition
Exponential smoothing
Forecasting
Foreign tourist
Mean absolute percentage error
Root mean square error
วันที่เผยแพร่: 2022
สำนักพิมพ์: Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
บทคัดย่อ: The objectives of this work are to find the suitable forecasting model and forecasting period of the number of foreign tourists traveling to Thailand. The monthly data is gathered during January 2008 to December 2019 and is divided into two sets. The first set is the data from January 2008 to December 2018 for the modelling by the method of decomposition, Holt–Winter’s exponential smoothing method and the Box–Jenkins. The second is the monthly data in 2019 for comparing the performance of the forecasting models via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE). The results show that, in term of forecasting, the multiplicative decomposition is the most accurate technique for the short-term (3 months) forecasting period with the lowest MAPE and RMSE of 1.04% and 42,054.29 international tourists, respectively. © 2022, The Author(s).
URI: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85126767245&doi=10.1007%2fs44199-022-00041-5&partnerID=40&md5=dabb3f8fdda07cfd7bc5e3550fa0cce8
https://ir.swu.ac.th/jspui/handle/123456789/27616
ISSN: 22141766
Appears in Collections:Scopus 2022

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